November 4, 2021
The North Carolina House and Senate gave final approval to new state and congressional district maps today.
The state legislature is statutorily required to redraw legislative district maps every ten years as part of the decennial redistricting process in order to account for population changes and maintain equal representation in districts. Republican leaders described this year’s redistricting process as being unprecedentedly fair, transparent and open for members of the public to provide input. The N.C. House and Senate Redistricting Committees agreed upon criteria to draw legislative districts with compactness, equal population and contiguous boundaries, and without consideration of data related to race, partisanship or election results. Despite guardrails in place, the approved maps give Republicans a significant advantage in the U.S. House of Representatives, the N.C. House of Representatives, and the N.C. Senate.
U.S. House of Representatives Map
Due to population growth, North Carolina received a 14th seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in this year’s redistricting cycle. The News and Observer predicts that the new congressional map produces 8 safe Republican seats, 3 safe Democratic seats and 3 competitive seats, of which 2 would lean Republican and 1 would lean Democratic.
The N&O predicts this map produces 55 safe Republican seats, 41 safe Democratic seats and 24 competitive seats, of which 13 would lean Republican and 11 would lean Democratic. Based on this estimation, Republicans would likely keep their majority, and could get to a supermajority by winning 17 of the 24 competitive seats. Democrats would have to win 20 of the 24 competitive districts to win a majority.
The N&O predicts this map will produce 24 safe Republican seats, 17 safe Democratic seats and 9 competitive seats, of which 5 would lean Republican and 4 would lean Democratic. Based on this estimation, Republicans would likely win a majority and could win a veto-proof supermajority by holding all of the right-leaning competitive districts and flipping one of the left-leaning ones. Democrats would have to win every competitive district to win the majority.
Democrats and other critics have heavily criticized the maps for having a predetermined and unfair political outcome given that North Carolina is considered a purple state. North Carolina has been at the epicenter of gerrymandering legal battles for decades, and the new maps appear poised for future court proceedings. Last Friday, the Southern Coalition for Social Justice filed the first lawsuit over the proposed congressional map and it’s likely that others will follow in the coming weeks and months.